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These milestones include the value of precision GNSS systems used for industrial applications such as machine control in agriculture and civil engineering exceeding that of precision GNSS for traditional uses such as surveying and science, for the first time. (For the purposes of this article, precision GNSS is defined as GNSS equipment/software/services that can provide horizontal precision of 10 centimeters or less using GNSS technology.)
The global value of precision GNSS products and services is approximately $3 billion today, and will grow to between $6 billion and $8 billion by 2012 (FIGURE 1), according to a market research report I co-authored with Rob Lorimer of Position One Consulting Pty. Ltd. (see sidebar).
Projected growth rates for Machine Control outpace traditional Non-Machine Control over the next five years. During 2008-12, Machine Control applications for precision GNSS are forecast to grow at a 23-28 percent Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), whereas the growth in Non-machine Control applications is forecast at 16-21 percent CAGR. FIGURES 2 and 3 show the optimistic and realistic growth numbers for four sectors and the market as a whole.
Growing Agriculture. This pattern of grown is clearly illustrated in the current growth of the precision agriculture sector which has been a subject of discussion and product development for well over a decade.
Historically, Hemisphere GPS (formerly CSI), Trimble Navigation, OmniSTAR, and smaller designers and system integrators were the GNSS technology providers for precision agriculture. For many years, the leading technology for precision agriculture was GPS L1 receivers providing sub-meter precision. That precision was good enough for yield mapping, applying chemicals, field mapping, aerial spraying, and various other tasks where sub-meter precision was really useful. That market matured.
Then along came high-precision applications such as auto-steer, where sub-meter precision wasn't good enough. At one centimeter horizontal accuracy, Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) technology fit that application perfectly and auto-steer in agriculture equipment became a practical application for precision GNSS.
RTK equipment is much more expensive than sub-meter equipment. The world-wide agriculture market is booming. Auto-steer and other high-precision applications in agriculture contribute to increased production capacity. Combine these three factors and you have a market that has the money and incentive to make the capital investment.
A New Breed. That dynamic has attracted a new breed of GNSS technology providers in agriculture. Take Leica Geosystems, for example. They've always been a player in the surveying sector, but a non-factor in the agriculture sector. That has changed. Visit their MojoRTK website (www.mojortk.com) and you'll see how serious they are about ag. Add Topcon, Novariant, and John Deere to the mix and you have a totally different competitive landscape, all pushing their high-precision GNSS solutions.
Even the traditional precision ag players, Hemisphere and Trimble, have adjusted their product strategies. Trimble, along with Leica, is dominating the Network RTK infrastructure sector, thus helping their agriculture RTK rover sales, also. Earlier this year, Hemisphere introduced its first dual-frequency RTK receiver and also acquired Beeline Technologies, a software pioneer in auto-steer and machine control technology. Ten years ago, OmniSTAR only had a real-time sub-meter service. Today, the company also has two brands of decimeter services.
It's been written before and it may more closely resemble folklore than reality, but Charlie Trimble has been attributed with saying that accuracy is addictive. It's a powerful statement. Regardless of who said it, it's a true statement. There's clearly a trend toward higher precision across all segments.
Precision Data Services. The growth in the number of precision GNSS users (estimated at more than 300,000 globally in 2008) is encouraging government and the private sector to invest in precision GNSS infrastructure. This infrastructure uses GNSS reference stations and wireless communications to deliver a data service to multiple users, removing the need for individual users to operate their own GNSS reference stations. The growth of infrastructure and its associated data services will be a significant feature of the precision GNSS landscape in 2008-2012. Indeed, precision GNSS data services are forecast to be the fastest growing component of the value chain at 33-38 percent CAGR.
Clearly, RTK Networks will play a large part in the projected GNSS data services growth segment. The question remains to be answered as to whom will benefit the most. Some government agencies (and even entire countries) are setting up and offering the corrections for free.
On the other end of the spectrum, local GNSS equipment distributors or other entrepreneurs are setting up RTK Networks and offering subscriptions to the open market. It's a dynamic situation with a few more turns in the road before it's clear where the road will lead.
No matter where the road heads, the steady shift in user demographics, continued evolution of space-based systems, and precise positioning techniques--combined with the growth of dedicated precision GNSS infrastructure and associated services--are a recipe for a dynamic and rapidly changing business environment.
Transformation. On the subject of the evolution of GNSS, during the period 2008-2012, a transformation in the way that precision GNSS is delivered to users will begin. Dual-frequency (L1/L2) codeless/semi-codeless techniques have been the hallmark of precision GPS since the 1980s. That is changing not only due to the GPS Wing's announcement of the end of civil support for codeless/semi-codeless (in 2021), but also because of the advent and evolution of new satellite systems including GLONASS (Russia), Galileo (EU), and GPS modernization. New satellites and new signals will transform the way precision GNSS products are designed and the way they perform. Precise positioning will become much more affordable than it is today and that will enable the technology to reach a much broader range of applications.
Eric Gakstatter is GPS World's contributing editor for Survey & Construction.
RELATED ARTICLE: Report Analyzes Precision Market
The market report "GNSS Precise Positioning Market Report 2008-2012" includes details on the projected U.S value chain starting with precision GNSS infrastructure, continuing through the market for GNSS receivers, finished GNSS goods, and concluding with GNSS augmentation and distribution services.
Markets covered include surveying, engineering, agriculture, mining, deformation monitoring, GIS, and marine for both machine control and non-machine control applications for the time period 2008 through 2012.
At the core of the 213-page report are five-year growth and financial projections for the high-precision GNSS markets surveyed, as well as analysis of the com petitive landscape, according to the report's authors.
"It is a comprehensive look at the high-precision GNSS industry covering the competitive landscape, technology trends and market data based on hard numbers," said Eric Gakstatter, who co-authored the report with Rob Lorimer of Position One Consulting Pty. Ltd. "New GNSS signals, new GNSS technologies, and new competitors have created extraordinary market dynamics in the precision GNSS industry."
The report also discusses the background and status of the entire spectrum of GNSS including GPS, GPS modernization, GLONASS and GLONASS modernization, SBAS (satellite-based augmentation systems), Galileo and Compass/Beidou, QZSS, and IRNSS systems, as well as technology/market trends and potential disruptions.
The authors debuted the report at the Institute of Navigation (ION) GNSS conference in Savannah, Georgia, in September. An abstract of the report can be found at www.gpsworld.com/precision.
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